Brazil Betting Ban: What the Election Runoff Means for iGaming

Brazil’s presidential race is now a referendum on its betting market. Nine days before the first round, President Lula signed a measure shutting down the country’s licensed online betting sector. On 4 October, voters sent him and Flávio Bolsonaro to a runoff on 25 October, and the two men differ in important ways on the Brazil betting ban. For operators, affiliates and the football clubs that rely on sponsorship money, the next three weeks will help decide whether one of the world’s fastest-growing regulated markets gets a second life or stays closed.

Here is what has happened since the Brazil betting ban was announced, where each candidate stands, and the scenarios the industry should be planning for.

How the Brazil Betting Ban Came About

Brazil opened its regulated online betting market on 1 January 2025 under Law 14.790/2023, often called the Bets Law. Operators paid R$30 million for five-year federal licences, and the market grew quickly. Industry figures cited by trade press put 2025 gross gaming revenue at around R$37 billion, generated by 79 licensed operators serving more than 25 million bettors. Sports betting accounted for roughly 55% of online revenue, with online casino making up most of the rest.

Growth brought political pressure. Throughout 2026, concern over household debt, problem gambling and the reach of betting advertising, including to children, became a campaign issue. In August, Lula said publicly that if it were up to him, betting would end. On 22 September, speaking at the UN General Assembly, he described the industry as one that “turns addiction into profit”.

Provisional Measure 1.394

Three days later, on 25 September, the government published Provisional Measure (MP) 1.394. Its key provisions:

• A ban on fixed-odds betting on real sporting events and virtual games, including advertising and intermediation.
• Revocation of most of Law 14.790/2023 and the betting chapter of Law 13.756/2018, which together form the legal basis of the regulated market.
• Short deadlines for operators to wind down and for customers to withdraw balances, followed by blocking orders to internet providers and app stores.
• No refund of licence fees already paid.

Lottery products are not affected by the Brazil betting ban. The finance ministry framed the measure as a public health response, pointing to rising indebtedness among Brazilian households.

Under Brazil’s constitution a provisional measure takes effect at once, but it lapses unless Congress approves it within 120 days. That detail matters a great deal for the future of the Brazil betting ban now that the first-round results are in. For background on how the market was structured before the shutdown, see our guide to Brazil’s regulated betting market.

Brazil Election Results: The First Round

With almost all polling stations counted, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) finished first with 47.04% of valid votes. Lula took 45.15%, a gap of about 2.25 million votes. Neither reached the 50% needed to win outright, so the two will meet again on Sunday 25 October.

The minor candidates are worth noting because their votes are now up for grabs, and several of them campaigned on the Brazil betting ban:

• Augusto Cury (2.89%) argued for very high taxes on betting rather than a ban.
• Renan Santos (2.24%) promised to end betting entirely, calling it “a drug worse than crack”.
• Ronaldo Caiado (2.18%) opposed a direct ban, preferring financial monitoring and advertising limits.
• Romeu Zema (0.27%) said banning gambling would be his first act as president.

In Congress, Bolsonaro’s party won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, making it the largest single bloc, and was leading in 19 of the 54 Senate seats being contested.

Lula vs Bolsonaro: Two Visions for the Betting Market

Both runoff candidates are against online gambling, but they would handle the Brazil betting ban differently. The difference lies in how far each is willing to go, and whether sports betting survives.

Lula: keep the full ban

Lula’s position is the clearest. MP 1.394 is his policy, and his recent statements suggest no appetite for a partial rollback. When nine major clubs, including Corinthians, Palmeiras and Flamengo, asked him to reconsider, he replied that Brazilian football could survive without betting money. A Lula victory would most likely see the government push Congress to approve the measure and look for ways to make the ban permanent.

Flávio Bolsonaro: casino out, sports betting under review

Bolsonaro has called the ban “populist, hypocritical and politically motivated”, but that does not make him pro-gambling. He opposes online casinos outright. On sports betting he has said it needs “some form of control” rather than prohibition. His running mate said in August that the campaign did not yet have a defined position on a total ban, and none has been published since.

If he wins, the most likely outcome is that online casino stays banned while a regulated sports betting market is rebuilt. That would not happen overnight. Because MP 1.394 revokes most of the Bets Law, a sports-only market would need new legislation, new licensing rules and a new licensing round.

What the Runoff Means for the Brazil Betting Ban in Congress

The president is not the only decision-maker on the Brazil betting ban. Congress must vote on MP 1.394 within its 120-day window, and the timetable overlaps with the change of government. That creates three broad scenarios.

Scenario 1: Lula wins and Congress approves the measure

The Brazil betting ban becomes permanent. Operators would focus on legal claims over licence fees, and any future reopening would require a fresh law. Bills already filed in Congress, covering a full ban, a sponsorship ban and limits on high-risk casino games, could add further restrictions.

Scenario 2: Bolsonaro wins and the measure lapses or is amended

With a larger PL bloc, Congress could let the measure expire or amend it to separate sports betting from casino. Sports betting would have a path back; online casino almost certainly would not.

Scenario 3: A divided outcome

If the presidency and Congress pull in different directions, the result could be months of legal uncertainty, with courts playing a larger role. Several clubs have already filed challenges seeking transition periods, and Flamengo has warned of a potential R$430 million budget gap in 2027.

What It Means for Operators and Affiliates

For businesses with Brazilian exposure, the practical picture under the Brazil betting ban is similar in every scenario: online casino in Brazil looks finished for the foreseeable future, and sports betting is the only vertical with a realistic chance of returning.

• Operators are already counting the cost. Flutter has guided to a $70 million revenue hit if the closure continues through 2026, and Entain has lowered its growth outlook.
• Affiliates with Portuguese-language sites face an immediate traffic and revenue gap. Under the measure, promoting fixed-odds betting to Brazilian users is prohibited, so content and campaigns should be reviewed now rather than after the runoff.
• Sports sponsorship is the most visible casualty. Betting brands had become the main shirt sponsors across Brazilian football, and clubs are now among the loudest voices calling for a transition period.

Affiliates looking at where to redirect effort while the Brazil betting ban is in force may find our overview of regulated Latin American markets useful, alongside our iGaming regulation tracker.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is online betting currently banned in Brazil?

Yes. Provisional Measure 1.394, published on 25 September 2026, bans fixed-odds betting on sports and virtual games and revokes most of the 2023 Bets Law. It took effect immediately but must be approved by Congress within 120 days to remain in force.

Could the Brazil betting ban be reversed after the election?

It is possible. If Congress does not approve the measure in time, it lapses. Flávio Bolsonaro has signalled support for controlled sports betting, so a win for him and a stronger Liberal Party in Congress increase the chance of a partial reversal. A new law would still be needed to rebuild a licensed market.

Will online casino return to Brazil?

It looks unlikely in the near term. Both runoff candidates oppose online casino, so even a partial reversal would most likely cover sports betting only.

When is the Brazil election runoff?

The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro takes place on Sunday 25 October 2026.

Do operators get their licence fees back?

No. Under the Brazil betting ban, the R$30 million licence fees are non-refundable, although legal challenges are likely.

Keeping Track of Brazil’s Betting Market

The Brazil betting ban will not be settled on 25 October alone. The runoff decides who sets the direction, but Congress, the courts and any new legislation will shape what the market looks like in 2027. We will update this analysis after the runoff. In the meantime, explore our latest iGaming regulation news to stay ahead of changes in the markets that matter to you.

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